It’s a return to normality this week after the kamikaze Shoot-Out with the Ladbrokes World Grand Prix at Preston’s Guild Hall.
The Guild Hall, after the Crucible, is the second most famous venue in the sport. It hosted the UK Championship for 20 years (1978-1997) then seven years of the Old Grand Prix/LG Cup between 1998-2005. It returned to the sports roster of venues last year after a 12 year ranking event absence when Barry Hawkins triumphed over Ryan Day 10-7. Of the 32 entered here, O’Sullivan has won at the venue three times, John Higgins twice and Mark Williams once. The Class of 92′.
As was the case last season, the top 32 players on the one-year ranking list earned their places here. That doesn’t include Barry Hawkins (a twice winner in Preston) so he won’t be back to defend his title. A rare occurance of a player not being able to defend his crown.
If going by form, we have the top 32 players of this season here in Preston battling it out for the trophy. So naturally a very tricky task to figure out who is going to win on Sunday week.
The opening two rounds are best of seven. I don’t think any of the 32 will like that format. You gotta be quick out the blocks or you will be in serious trouble. A fast start is imperative.
Looking at the draw (http://www.worldsnooker.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Click-here-for-the-draw-1.pdf) and cutting it into the four quarters, it’s safe to say there’s two sections I want to avoid.
Quarter 1 has Ronnie O’Sullivan, Rob Milkins, Yan Bingtao, Martin Gould Mark Allen, Xiao Guodong, John Higgins and Ali Carter.
Quarter 3 has Judd Trump, Michael White, Graeme Dott, Joe Perry, Neil Robertson, Dave Gilbert, Mark Selby and Jimmy Robertson.
As much as Ronnie looks to have a moderately comfortable opener with Rob Milkins (very dangerous on his day but never beaten Ronnie bar in the one frame Shoot-Out) facing Yan Bingtao potentially in the next round is a real test (or Martin Gould). Bingtao beat the Rocket 6-1 in October.
O’Sullivan has had plenty of problems versus Allen and Higgins too this season. Granted, he was under the weather losing 6-1 to Allen in the Masters. Excuses aside, Allen was too good. Higgins thrashed Ronnie 5-0 in the Scottish Open. It’s enough obstacles to bypass Ronnie at 10/3 best price in the outrights. And anyone else in that section too.
Mark Allen opens with Xiao Guodong (couldn’t of asked for much tougher) and John Higgins takes on Ali Carter, a player who can blow anyone away if hitting the right note.
Fair few in Quarter 1 will fancy their chances of causing some damage in the first two rounds of best of sevens. A section to avoid.
Quarter 3 has a similar feel.
Judd Trump has a banana skin starter with this seasons Paul Hunter Classic winner, Michael White, then a last 16 match up with tough nuts Graeme Dott (got to last two ranking finals and beaten Trump twice this season) or Joe Perry. I don’t think Trump is one to trust totally at the moment. At 8/1 he’s not priced badly. However, he’s had two tough semi final losses recently at the Masters and German Masters. Throw in a shock loss to Jak Jones in qualifying for China Open, I’ll leave Judd to prove me wrong.
Mark Selby and Neil Robertson should meet each other in the last 16 and that will be mouth watering encounter for a best of seven. Selby has been expensive to follow, especially in the outrights. One tournament win only and plenty of shock defeats this season for the World No1 isn’t what you would of expected after lifting his third world crown in May. He’s 9/2 this week, not big enough for me.
Neil Robertson came to the boil nicely for us in the Scottish Open (16/1 outright pick winner) but before that had been as inconsistent as me in my local league. I’d be more on Neil’s side in a different section. It’s another Quarter (like Quarter 1) that five or six could come to the party and take it.
I’d rather leave them all to battle it out for a place in the semi finals. A complete minefield I don’t wanna touch.
Instead, I’m concentrating on Quarters 2 and 4 for my two Outright picks at fairly fancy prices.
In Quarter 2 first, it looks to be a nice section for Luca Brecel to exploit. I don’t think there’s many more dangerous players on the circuit than the Belgian Bullet. A ranking tournament winner at the China Championship in August. His first as a professional. He was always going to win one sooner or later. He’s that good.
Consistency wise, he’s been very good all season so far. In 11 ranking events, he’s only lost in one first round. He’s made the Quarter Finals in Shanghai and then Semi’s in Haikou. Maybe he has a love for Asia. I’m not too worried that he’s yet to make a ranking final in the U.K (made Shoot-Out final when it was non ranking event).
Talking of the Shoot-Out, in Luca’s opener, he comes up against Michael Georgiou, last weeks Shoot-Out Champion. Georgiou was breathtaking all week and actually beat Brecel in the last 32. This is a different kettle of fish though and will have no bearing in this format. I think Brecel will get his revenge on the Cypriot.
The mercurial Stephen Maguire is likely to await in the last 16. The stroppy Scot is brilliant on his day, and had a great run in the UK Championship. Pushed O’Sullivan closer than anyone.
He’s had a long break after missing Berlin and the Shoot-Out and wouldn’t totally surprise me if he’s caught cold against massive improver this season Li Hang in round one especially in the cagey short format. Maguire has only had one ‘competitive’ match in 2018 so far (excluding the invitational Championship League). If things aren’t going his way, he’s not someone you want fighting for you. A towel thrower so to speak. He should however beat Hang.
If Luca is to win this week, he’s sure gotta do it the hard way. He might play Shaun Murphy in the Quarter Final whom he beat in the final in Guangzhou. Then it’s O’Sullivan/Allen/Higgins in the semi. It’s an incredibly tough tournament to select the winner.
This is why at 50/1, Brecel is worth a flyer. He shouldn’t be that big. He’s utterly fearless and couldn’t careless who he plays. An incredible stat regarding Brecel is he’s won 10 from 10 this season in final frame deciders. Yes, that run won’t last, but it signifies Luca has fantastic bottle and belief as well as supreme fighting qualities and talent. If his safety game can hold up (a minor weakness in his game) he’s more than capable of out running his current outright odds.
Quarter 4 now and Kyren Wilson was teary after losing in the Masters final to Mark Allen. It shows how much he cares. It was possibly a step too far and experience told for Allen. Ultimately it will make Kyren a stronger player in the future. Losses are tough to take but you learn from them. He had a fantastic week defeating Barry Hawkins, Mark Williams (won the next tournament) and an incredible comeback against Judd Trump in the Semi Final from 1-5 down to win 6-5.
He’s without doubt a threat in any tournament he turns up in. He’s reminded me of younger Mark Selby for a long while. As tough as teak. The sort of player you want in a battle when you need to stand up and be counted. Hence his nickname, The Warrior.
The Kettering man is having a very solid season. Two ranking finals and one at the non ranking Masters. Only two first round defeats in 10. He opens up with Walsall’s Mark Joyce, who’s having a very good season himself. I understand they practise together regularly and are good mates on the circuit. This is there first meeting as professionals. I would be firmly on the side of Wilson. His draw isn’t unkind. Next up would be Ding Junhui or Mark King. Then potentially a Quarter Final showdown with Mark Williams who he beat 6-2 at the Masters at the same stage.
Looking too far ahead can be a bit hasty. Kyren, like Luca will have to take down many top quality players on the way to the final, let alone in the final itself but he’s 40/1 for this. That is way overpriced if you ask me. He’s proven on the top table now. I can imagine Wilson is chomping at the bit to get to Preston and stamp his authority on the tournament from the first ball hit. I’ve seen a lot worse 40/1 shots in my time. He’s a top quality snooker player.
In the first round there’s a couple of prices that take my fancy and I’m going to advise a single and a double.
Mark King hasn’t got a great record against Ding Junhui (currently six matches played and just one win). But they haven’t played since 2015. Romford’s King is an extremely experienced campaigner and I can imagine is well up for this best of seven with Ding.
Ding did come back to form at the German Masters making the Quarter Final but I’m still not convinced by him. Ding has lost in four first round ties and two second rounds this season. King had a good run in this last season beating Stephen Maguire and Ali Carter before losing eventually in the Quarter Finals to Marco Fu.
In best of sevens this season, Ding has won three, lost three. Losses include Anthony Hamilton and Rory McLeod. I feel King is massively overpriced here at 5/2 with Boyles. Total disrespect to King’s capabilities. He’s a shrewd player. King made the Semi final in India and the Quarters at the UK Championship this season so is here on merit. I’d make King no bigger than 15/8 so 5/2 is great value. I think he’ll go very close to winning his first match against Ding since 2012.
My last advise is on a double in Round 1. I fancy Stephen Maguire and Cao Yupeng to both come through which pays just over 11/5 with Stan James.
Maguire faces one of the most improved players on tour, Li Hang. Maguire as mentioned earlier is fresh after missing Germany and the Shoot-Out. Hang has lost his last two ranking tournament qualifiers to Andrew Higginson 5-4 and Chen Zhe 6-4 (from 4-0 up). So isn’t coming into this in great heart. He is a battler though and won’t go down without a fight but Maguire’s class should be enough.
Maguire won both previous meetings last year, 5-3 in the China Open and 10-5 at the World Championship final qualifying two weeks later. Hang is better player now but Maguire is worthy favourite and should win.
Cao Yupeng is a winning machine this season with 28 victories and I fancy him to make it 29 versus Anthony McGill.
Cao is one of the star Chinese players of the season along with Xiao Guodong and Yan Bingtao. He was one pot away of winning a maiden ranking title at the Scottish Open. He deserved it too, it was the most agonising defeat of the season for any player. He lost with great dignity. It was a huge upturn in form after hardly winning any matches all of last season. He’s got an excellent all round game. Not a heavy scorer but does a lot of frame winning breaks. This is proven in his 36 breaks this season between 70 and 89.
After a good start to the season which included a final in India and semi final at the English Open, Anthony McGill’s form has took a nose dive. He hasn’t won two matches in a row since October. Losses between October and January include Lee Walker, Li Yuan, Peter Ebdon, Hossein Vafaei and Jimmy White. All those five aren’t in Cao Yupeng’s league for me.
Yupeng is a 6/5 shot to win this, and if going on season form he’d be a slight favourite possibly (even though McGill is higher ranked). I’d price these pair at 10/11 apiece. McGill is obviously low on confidence, even if he did show signs of promise at the Masters against John Higgins but it was all in vain. I think his losing run might continue in Preston.
At just over 11/5, Maguire and Yupeng look good things in round 1 to do the business.
To end my preview, I’m going to give you a few stats on the 32 players involved this week and provide you with their records this season in the dreaded best of sevens. Rounds 1 and 2 this week are first to four. It might give you some help in finding winners. It might not. But it’s interesting all the same. They are in top to bottom order in terms of win percentage.
Wins – Losses – Win%
O’Sullivan 11-1 – 92%
Williams 14-2 – 88%
Higgins 18-3 – 86%
Trump 12-3 – 80%
McGill 20-5 – 80%
M White 16-4 – 80%
Bingham 11-3 – 79%
N Robertson 14-4 – 78%
Selby 10-3 – 77%
Yupeng 12-4 – 75%
Bingtao 11-4 – 73%
Maguire 11-4 – 73%
Day 10-4 – 71%
Wilson 13-6 – 68%
Lisowski 13-6 – 68%
Guodong 10-5 – 67%
Walden 12-6 – 67%
Murphy 13-7 – 65%
Brecel 9-5 – 64%
Perry 10-6 – 63%
Gilbert 12-7 – 63%
King 11-7 – 61%
Joyce 11-7 – 61%
Allen 9-6 – 60%
Milkins 9-6 – 60%
J Robertson 7-6 – 54%
Ding 3-3 – 50%
Georgiou 6-7 – 46%
Hang 5-6 – 45%
Dott 4-6 – 40%
Carter 3-5 – 38%
Gould 1-6 – 14%
I’ll be interested to see if Martin Gould can improve on his one and only best of seven win in round one versus Yan Bingtao. I think those stats tell you two things, who doesn’t like best of sevens and who doesn’t mind them. Because no one likes them!
Recommendations:
Luca Brecel to win the World Grand Prix 50/1 Marathon/Betfred 0.50pt e/w
Kyren Wilson to win the World Grand Prix 40/1 Stan James 0.50pt e/w
Mark King to beat Ding Junhui 5/2 Boyles 1pt win (Wednesday 1pm)
Stephen Maguire to beat Li Hang (1pm Tuesday) and Cao Yupeng to beat Anthony McGill (7pm Tuesday) pays just over 11/5 Stan James 1pt double
*Small footnote. I spoke to a competitor who plays this week in Preston (not naming names!) and his outright selection is Stephen Maguire at 50/1 (boosted to 60/1 with Ladbrokes).
All the action is live on ITV4. Many thanks for reading. Enjoy.
George
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